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The conclusion to this paper by Michael Hurd and Susann Rohwedder is not very encouraging:

Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households, by Michael D. Hurd and Susann Rohwedder, NBER [open link]: Introduction ...In this paper we present results about the effects of the economic crisis and recession on American households. They come from high-frequency surveys dedicated to tracking the effects of the crisis and recession that we conducted in the American Life Panel – an Internet survey run by RAND Labor and Population. The first survey was fielded at the beginning of November 2008, immediately following the large declines in the stock market of September and October. The next survey followed three months later in February 2009. Since May 2009 we have collected monthly data on the same households. ...

Conclusions The economic problems leading to the recession began with a housing price bubble in many parts of the country and a coincident stock market bubble. These problems evolved into the financial crisis. ...

According to our measures almost 40% of households have been affected either by unemployment, negative home equity, arrears on their mortgage payments, or foreclosure. Additionally economic preparation for retirement, which is hard to measure, has undoubtedly been affected. Many people approaching retirement suffered substantial losses in their retirement accounts: indeed in the November 2008 survey, 25% of respondents aged 50-59 reported they had lost more than 35% of their retirement savings, and some of them locked in their losses prior to the partial recovery in the stock market by selling out. Some persons retired unexpectedly early because of unemployment, leading to a reduction of economic resources in retirement which will be felt throughout their retirement years. Some younger workers who have suffered unemployment will not reach their expected level of lifetime earnings and will have reduced resources in retirement as well as during their working years.

Spending has been approximately constant since it reached its minimum in about November, 2009. Short-run expectations of stock market gains and housing prices gains have recovered somewhat, yet are still rather pessimistic; and, possibly more telling, longer-term expectations for those price increases have declined substantially and have shown no signs of recovery. The implication is that long-run expectations have become pessimistic relative to short-run expectations.

Expectations about unemployment have improved somewhat from their low point in May 2009 but they remain high: they predict that about 18% of workers will experience unemployment over a 12 month period. Despite the public discussion of the necessity to work longer, expectations about working to age 62 among those not currently working declined by 10 percentage points. In our view this decline reflects long-term pessimism about the likelihood of a successful job search.

The recession officially ended in June 2009. A main component of that judgment is that the economy is no longer declining. According to our data the economic situation of the typical household is no longer worsening which is consistent with the end of the recession defined as negative change. However, when defined in terms of levels rather than rates of change, from the point of view of the typical household the Great Recession is not over.

Good morning, Washington. To what extent do the boundaries of newsworthiness extend? That's the question that the Internet is discussing this morning, after Gawker decided to pull a graphic photo taken shortly after Christopher Jusko, a 21-year-old New Yorker, was stabbed to death. Locally, similar questions are being asked about the widely-circulated image of a crosswalk near DC9 on U Street. According to sources, the image, depicting a crosswalk splattered with what many assumed to be the blood of Ali Ahmed Mohammed after he was allegedly beaten to death, actually shows either blood from an earlier incident at the club that evening, or a substance that isn't blood at all. Ryan Kearney, who took one of the first images of the crosswalk and tweeted it, examines both stories and concludes that even the Internet's renegade journalists can go too far. I'd argue that both cases are good reminders that the soundest policy is usually the application of common sense.

Levy Murder Trial Resumes Today, Secrets Revealed: Testimony in the Chandra Levy murder trial restarts this morning after a six-day break in proceedings. To catch us up, Sarah Larimer reports on the multitude of Levy's personal details which have been revealed and pored over during the trial, including her workout routine, her Internet search history and her plastic surgery. Now, if you don't mind, I'm off to wipe my computer and burn all those receipts I've kept.

Groundbreaking On Convention Center Hotel: Mayor Adrian Fenty and company will attend the groundbreaking of the years-in-the-making, $520 million Washington Marriott Marquis Hotel at the intersection of 9th Street and Massachusetts Avenue at 11 a.m. this morning. Aside from introducing some new traffic patterns in the neighborhood, the groundbreaking has plenty of people feeling nostalgic -- I recommend DCMud's thorough retrospective on the process that's gotten the oft-debated site to this point. Looking towards the future, the Post has this tidy overview of what the hotel could bring to the District. Construction of the 1,175-room hotel is expected to take 42 months.

Wildlife Protection Act Passes: The bill proposed by Mary Cheh which will require professionals to humanely capture the critters roaming around D.C.'s crawl spaces passed the Council yesterday. We've discussed the bill before, and, as promised, the final version did not extend such protections to mice and rats, which anyone is still free to trap and kill however they see fit. Cheh also pointed out that the law only applied to pest control companies and not residents: "I don't like the image of you wielding a bat and smashing a possum in the head, but this law wouldn't stop that," Cheh said.

Heartbreaking: Paul Duggan writes this emotionally relentless report about the murder of Joseph Sharps, the Springarn High School student who was shot and killed on Monday night in Trinidad. Don't expect to get through it without getting incredibly angry or coming close to losing it several times.

Briefly Noted: Taxi driver carjacked at knifepoint on 300 block of Allison Street NW last night...DDOT is inspecting the District's bridges this week...Reminder to politicians: please take down your signs...Virginia outlines $1.45 billion transportation spending plan...Council passes emergency legislation requiring foreclosure mediation...Metrobus accident on Good Hope Road SE causes minor injuries...Maryland MVA says that more than 1,300 of the state's residents could be driving with suspended or revoked licenses.

This Day in DCist: Last year, the District's same-sex marriage legislation passed its first hurdle and we heard about the Tweed Ride for the first time; in 2006, we were raving about the soul food at Henry's.

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The conclusion to this paper by Michael Hurd and Susann Rohwedder is not very encouraging:

Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households, by Michael D. Hurd and Susann Rohwedder, NBER [open link]: Introduction ...In this paper we present results about the effects of the economic crisis and recession on American households. They come from high-frequency surveys dedicated to tracking the effects of the crisis and recession that we conducted in the American Life Panel – an Internet survey run by RAND Labor and Population. The first survey was fielded at the beginning of November 2008, immediately following the large declines in the stock market of September and October. The next survey followed three months later in February 2009. Since May 2009 we have collected monthly data on the same households. ...

Conclusions The economic problems leading to the recession began with a housing price bubble in many parts of the country and a coincident stock market bubble. These problems evolved into the financial crisis. ...

According to our measures almost 40% of households have been affected either by unemployment, negative home equity, arrears on their mortgage payments, or foreclosure. Additionally economic preparation for retirement, which is hard to measure, has undoubtedly been affected. Many people approaching retirement suffered substantial losses in their retirement accounts: indeed in the November 2008 survey, 25% of respondents aged 50-59 reported they had lost more than 35% of their retirement savings, and some of them locked in their losses prior to the partial recovery in the stock market by selling out. Some persons retired unexpectedly early because of unemployment, leading to a reduction of economic resources in retirement which will be felt throughout their retirement years. Some younger workers who have suffered unemployment will not reach their expected level of lifetime earnings and will have reduced resources in retirement as well as during their working years.

Spending has been approximately constant since it reached its minimum in about November, 2009. Short-run expectations of stock market gains and housing prices gains have recovered somewhat, yet are still rather pessimistic; and, possibly more telling, longer-term expectations for those price increases have declined substantially and have shown no signs of recovery. The implication is that long-run expectations have become pessimistic relative to short-run expectations.

Expectations about unemployment have improved somewhat from their low point in May 2009 but they remain high: they predict that about 18% of workers will experience unemployment over a 12 month period. Despite the public discussion of the necessity to work longer, expectations about working to age 62 among those not currently working declined by 10 percentage points. In our view this decline reflects long-term pessimism about the likelihood of a successful job search.

The recession officially ended in June 2009. A main component of that judgment is that the economy is no longer declining. According to our data the economic situation of the typical household is no longer worsening which is consistent with the end of the recession defined as negative change. However, when defined in terms of levels rather than rates of change, from the point of view of the typical household the Great Recession is not over.

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The conclusion to this paper by Michael Hurd and Susann Rohwedder is not very encouraging:

Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households, by Michael D. Hurd and Susann Rohwedder, NBER [open link]: Introduction ...In this paper we present results about the effects of the economic crisis and recession on American households. They come from high-frequency surveys dedicated to tracking the effects of the crisis and recession that we conducted in the American Life Panel – an Internet survey run by RAND Labor and Population. The first survey was fielded at the beginning of November 2008, immediately following the large declines in the stock market of September and October. The next survey followed three months later in February 2009. Since May 2009 we have collected monthly data on the same households. ...

Conclusions The economic problems leading to the recession began with a housing price bubble in many parts of the country and a coincident stock market bubble. These problems evolved into the financial crisis. ...

According to our measures almost 40% of households have been affected either by unemployment, negative home equity, arrears on their mortgage payments, or foreclosure. Additionally economic preparation for retirement, which is hard to measure, has undoubtedly been affected. Many people approaching retirement suffered substantial losses in their retirement accounts: indeed in the November 2008 survey, 25% of respondents aged 50-59 reported they had lost more than 35% of their retirement savings, and some of them locked in their losses prior to the partial recovery in the stock market by selling out. Some persons retired unexpectedly early because of unemployment, leading to a reduction of economic resources in retirement which will be felt throughout their retirement years. Some younger workers who have suffered unemployment will not reach their expected level of lifetime earnings and will have reduced resources in retirement as well as during their working years.

Spending has been approximately constant since it reached its minimum in about November, 2009. Short-run expectations of stock market gains and housing prices gains have recovered somewhat, yet are still rather pessimistic; and, possibly more telling, longer-term expectations for those price increases have declined substantially and have shown no signs of recovery. The implication is that long-run expectations have become pessimistic relative to short-run expectations.

Expectations about unemployment have improved somewhat from their low point in May 2009 but they remain high: they predict that about 18% of workers will experience unemployment over a 12 month period. Despite the public discussion of the necessity to work longer, expectations about working to age 62 among those not currently working declined by 10 percentage points. In our view this decline reflects long-term pessimism about the likelihood of a successful job search.

The recession officially ended in June 2009. A main component of that judgment is that the economy is no longer declining. According to our data the economic situation of the typical household is no longer worsening which is consistent with the end of the recession defined as negative change. However, when defined in terms of levels rather than rates of change, from the point of view of the typical household the Great Recession is not over.

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Tuesday, December 7, 2010

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